The latest plans for coal regions: what is changing?

Despite pressure from workers in the sector and trade unions in recent weeks, the government of Acad. Nikolai Denkov's government has decided to send the Fair Transition Plans to Brussels. This was done on the last possible date — 30 September — after our country had been granted a three-month extension in June to prepare and develop them.

Until their adoption at the end of November, the government assured the protesters that there was still time for parallel negotiations with the European Commission, and that there was still a chance to make adjustments.

Territorial plan of Stara Zagora

While there was not much difference between the first and second versions of the territorial plans, the third version has new end dates for the operation of the coal-fired power plants right from the start.

The Stara Zagora district has been identified as the most affected by the transition, as it is home to the four coal-fired power plants and mines. Two specific years — 2030 (reduction of emissions from coal-fired power plants) and 2038 (the latest planned date for completion of the phase-out) — have been taken as reference years to align with the expected changes described in Chapter 1, according to the strategy documents published today.

The version published in the summer used 2026 as the reference date for reducing emissions from coal-fired power plants and 2038 as the end date for the phase-out.

Specific figures are also new to the document, which states that

By 2030, the available base-load lignite-fired capacity in Bulgaria is expected to reach 1.6 GW" — exactly the capacity of the state-owned Maritsa East 2 thermal power plant (1620 MW). This information was missing from the previous version.

By 2035, 1 GW of lignite capacity will be maintained to meet critical needs to secure the national electricity balance under different climate and geopolitical scenarios.

The new plan states that coal capacity is not expected to play a significant role in Bulgaria's energy mix after 2035.

Another key figure that has been missing is the amount of money earmarked for investment in the Stara Zagora region. It is now clear that the Fair Transition Fund has earmarked €936 million for the region.

Territorial plan of Kyustendil

And if in the previous territorial plan for Kyustendil specifics were written only for TPP "Bobov Dol,” which, according to the document, 

will need industrial reconstruction and technological conversion to zero carbon energy sources to reduce carbon emissions in order to continue operating or be shut down in 2026,”

this paragraph is now missing and no date is given for the decommissioning of the plant.

Coal mining in the Kyustendil region is still continuing at the full capacity of the Bobov Dol thermal power plant, using local coal, so the impending impact on jobs, decarbonisation and the transition to climate neutrality will be significant in 2026, in the absence of offsetting measures, says the current plan.

The Fair Transition Fund allocated to the Kyustendil region amounts to EUR 122 million.

Territorial plan of Pernik

For Pernik, there are no significant changes compared to the summer version.

Somehow it seems that while people want to keep coal-fired power generation, the government is appeasing them with more and more renewables, and additional energy storage capacity. New numbers are being thrown around in the plan for more green energy and batteries.

Without giving a specific date, it is written that the forecast for new renewable energy capacity and generation is increased by 3.5 GW, resulting in renewable energy capacity said to total 5.2 GW, and storage systems (batteries) could reach 1 GW.

By 2030, it is written that renewable energy capacities will be further developed, with installed capacities reaching 7.5 GW, including offshore wind and energy storage systems with a capacity of 1.6 GW (data that was not there in the old version, and offshore wind was not present in it at all).

For 2035, the capacity of renewable energy is expected to exceed 10 GW by that year, including offshore wind with a capacity of 1.5 GW as well as storage systems.

And to debunk another myth that with the closure of the plants our country will no longer be an exporter of electricity, the new document states that

the development of the Bulgarian production mix allows to maintain Bulgaria's net export balance over the whole horizon.”

In an attempt to instil some positivity in the sector, the Ministry of Energy has made cosmetic changes to the jobs affected.

The previous version stated that

a further 15 thousand jobs are expected to be affected by 2038 as the transition period continues towards the completion of the coal phase-out."

And the latest, now sent to Brussels, says

by 2038, at least 15 thousand more jobs are expected to be created in other economic areas as the energy transition gradually progresses to the final phase-out of coal plants by 2038."