Bulgaria consistently meets the inflation criterion for the euro area

Bulgaria has been consistently meeting the inflation criterion for the eurozone. For the second month in a row, the country has been meeting the consumer price requirement, according to data from the European statistical office Eurostat, published on Wednesday. They confirm the forecasts of various economists that Bulgaria will be able to meet this requirement, and on January 1, 2026, it will adopt the second most used currency in the world.

The criterion was met for the first time in February, when Bulgaria's inflation rate fully matched that of the eurozone. Relying on these assessments, the government of Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov submitted a request for an extraordinary convergence report from the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) back in February.

Just a day earlier, the Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), Dimitar Radev, pointed out that since the beginning of the year, Bulgaria has consistently met the threshold, and probably also the one for the budget deficit.

According to data as of March 2025, measured by Eurostat, the average annual inflation in Bulgaria is 2.7%. The average level of the three member states with the lowest inflation is 1.23%. According to the accession rules, the indicator in Bulgaria cannot exceed this level by more than 1.5 pp. In this case, this means 2.78%.

Last month, the three member states with the lowest inflation were once again Ireland (1.2%), Finland (1.2%) and Italy (1.3%).

Not counting Finland

Typically, if there is a slight deviation from the desired level, the EC and ECB can exclude from the calculations some countries with too low inflation, if it is due to "exceptional factors".

If Finland is excluded, the next lowest inflation rate, Denmark, at 1.5%, will take its place. This brings the new threshold to 1.33%, or 2.83% if the 1.5 percentage point excess is added.

Translated by Tzvetozar Vincent Iolov