“A Persistent Mismatch”: Education in Bulgaria Does Not Meet the Needs of the Labor Market

On January 1, 2026 observers again note a persistent mismatch between the structure of education and the needs of the labor market. Thus the Bulgarian education system continues to perpetuate accumulated imbalances rather than purposefully correcting them. The Institute for Market Economics (IME) notes this in a new report, which tracks the index of alignment between vocational education and the economic profile for 2026.

The biggest problem remains the weak link between vocational education and actual employment,” the IME notes.

They explain that there is still high enrollment in fields with limited demand or low job placement rates, while this is not the case for the professions that are truly in need. “This is particularly true for industrial and technical professions, where employers face a persistent shortage of workers,” the IME adds.

Another alarming trend is the continued lack of job openings in professions related to healthcare, social services, energy and education – sectors where the shortage of workers has already become systemic.

The existence of professions with not a single advertised vacancy indicates a lack of long-term planning and the system’s weak ability to respond to strategic public needs,” the IME notes.

The Problem in Detail

The Index of Alignment between Vocational Education and the Economic Structure measures the ratio between the planned enrollment of students by profession and the actual employment of people with vocational qualifications in various sectors. The index is calculated on a scale from 0 – 100 pts where higher values indicate a better match.

In 2026 the index for the country as a whole is 54.4 pts, indicating that for about half of the students enrolled in vocational high schools there is no adequate market demand for their qualifications.

The six main sectors covered by the study – agriculture, manufacturing, construction, transportation, hospitality and restaurants and ICT – account for over 60% of all students in vocational education.

The discrepancies by sector are significant:

• In agriculture – 7% of enrollment, but only 4% of those employed hold a vocational qualification (VQ);
• In manufacturing – the opposite: 34% of those employed hold a VQ, but only 13% of enrollment;
• In construction – high demand (8% of the workforce), but low enrollment (4%);
• In transportation – 12% of the workforce, with less than 3% of enrollment;
• In the hotel and restaurant industry – over-enrollment (15%), but lower employment (8%);
• In ICT – 18% of enrollment, but less than 3% of those employed with vocational education.

The analysis concludes that the vocational education system is often more inclined to fill classrooms than to produce the workforce needed by business,” comment representatives from the Institute for Market Economics (IME).

Regional Differences

Data at the regional level provide an even clearer picture of the alignment between vocational education and the structure of the economy.

On January 1, 2026 the Razgrad region had the highest score with 68.2 p. It is followed by Dobrich (64.8 pts) and Ruse (63.8 pts). The main reason these districts score so high is that enrollment in agricultural professions nationwide remains inflated, particularly in the Dobruja region, where employment in the sector is high.

The capital ranks eighth. In its case the discrepancies lie in the low levels of enrollment and employment in agriculture and the high levels in the ICT sector. At the same time enrollment in construction and transportation is low compared to employment. In the Plovdiv region there is a relatively high correlation regarding industry, but enrollment in construction is inflated while in transportation it is insufficient.

Recommendations

The Institute also offers several recommendations, including:

• Closer alignment with the labor market – enrollment in vocational education should be planned according to the needs of the economy, employment and demographic trends. This will improve graduates’ employment prospects and reduce labor shortages;
• More flexible training and career transitions – students should be able to more easily change their career path according to their interests and labor market demand. This will make the system more adaptive and effective;
• Expanding dual education – learning through work in a real-world environment develops practical skills and facilitates the transition to employment. More active employer participation and incentives for businesses are needed;
• Broader and higher-quality education – instead of narrow specialization a broader profile is needed with an emphasis on mathematical, technological and language skills. This will provide students with greater flexibility;
• Restructuring of vocational fields – professions with low interest and poor job prospects should be gradually phased out while in-demand fields should be promoted. This will improve the balance between education and the economy;
• Better career guidance – students should receive timely information about career opportunities and the development of various professions. This will support more informed choices;
• Need for reforms – without changes the mismatches between education and the labor market will persist. This limits economic development and regional growth.

Translated with DeepL.