EBRD slightly raises its growth forecasts for the Bulgarian economy

The Bulgarian economy will expand by 2.7% in 2026 and the country’s accession to the eurozone will help reduce long-term financing costs and improve business sentiment. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) states this in its new report, published on Thursday.

It states that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.7% and 2.6% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This is a slight upward revision from last September’s estimates, which predicted growth of 2.6%. At the same time estimates for 2025 have been lowered by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9%.

Bulgaria officially joined the eurozone on January 1, 2026. This transition is expected to reduce long-term financing costs. At the same time the resurgence of political instability in early 2026 poses risks to the implementation of public investment and the timely absorption of the remaining funds from the European Recovery and Sustainability Fund,” the EBRD said.

As for Bulgaria’s GDP performance in 2025 the institution says that growth was stable and again supported by real wage growth of around 8%. At the same time net exports declined after the Lukoil Neftohim refinery faced maintenance disruptions and a complex transition to non-Russian crude oil.

The government budget deficit “approached 3%” as a result of higher social spending and defense investments. We would like to remind you that data from the Ministry of Finance (MF) showed a budget deficit of 3.1% of GDP.

Translated with DeepL.