Eurostat confirms: Bulgaria continues to meet the price criterion for the euro

Bulgaria continues to remain within the eurozone's inflation limits, according to data from the European statistical service Eurostat. Although the country has already been approved for the eurozone and will certainly become its 21st member on January 1, 2026, it has committed to maintaining price stability going forward.

According to data from the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the average annual inflation rate in Bulgaria, which is the indicator used for assessment, is 2.8%, accelerating from 2.7% in the last three months. The average level of the three member states with the lowest inflation is 1.3%. According to the rules, the indicator in Bulgaria cannot exceed this level by more than 1.5 percentage points. In this case, the upper limit is exactly 2.8%.

In June, the three countries with the lowest average annual inflation were Ireland (1.2%), France (1.4%), and Denmark (1.5%).

The expected fulfillment of the criterion was announced a day earlier by Finance Minister Temenuzhka Petkova. At a briefing after a meeting of the Council of Ministers, she stated that “in order to avoid speculation on this truly important issue,” preliminary estimates confirm Bulgaria's continued fulfillment of the criterion.

However, accelerating inflation in the country is a fact. Data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) for the last few months show an acceleration in the rate of price increases, which reached 4.4% year-on-year in June – the highest since December 2023.

A number of economists and financiers interviewed by Economic.bg predict even higher prices in the coming months. According to some, this trend may be useful for collecting the almost unbelievable revenues in the state budget for 2025, but it hits the purchasing power of Bulgarians.

Inflation in Bulgaria is currently accelerating, and this is linked to the introduction of the euro, as confirmed by the National Revenue Agency,” said Dimitar Chobanov, a financier and lecturer at the University of National and World Economy (UNWE).

He referred to the established speculation surrounding the upcoming introduction of the euro, which was detected by regulators even before the final decision on Bulgaria's accession to the eurozone, effective January 1, 2026. According to Chobanov, this will give the government “a breath of fresh air” because higher prices mean more VAT revenue. This could also affect salaries, which the financier expects to increase by the end of the year, along with corporate profits.

Translated with DeepL.