The Bulgarian economy, driven mainly by consumption over the last three years, is losing momentum significantly. Preliminary data for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows annual growth of 2.9% – the weakest since 2023.
It should be noted that the period between 2020 and 2023 was entirely marked by the COVID pandemic – first there was an economic collapse in 2020, followed by a rapid economic recovery in 2021 and 2022. As a result, growth figures for 2023 were slightly lower (around 1.5 – 2.2%), as the basis for comparison was high from previous periods.
The slowdown in growth began early this year, after reaching 3.8% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024 (according to preliminary data). Each subsequent quarter was weaker than the previous one.
Express data show that consumption continues to be the largest contributor to growth, financed by steady wage growth and government borrowing. In the fourth quarter, it grew by 7.2% year-on-year, but as it is the largest component in terms of value, its impact on the overall percentage is also the greatest. Gross capital formation also appears to be supporting the economy, growing by 10.1% – driven by investment in infrastructure and housing construction.
However, exports are again negative – down 0.1%, while imports are growing by 9.5%. This means that foreign trade has a strong negative impact on the country's economic growth and also contributes to Bulgaria's growing trade deficit, which exceeded BGN 20 billion last year. Bulgarian exports are strongly negative, suffering from a lack of sufficient orders from Bulgaria's Western partners, especially Germany.
Quarterly changes
In the fourth quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. Gross value added grew by 0.4%.
According to the NSI's flash estimates of GDP by final use, the reason for the economic growth recorded in seasonally adjusted data compared to the previous quarter is the 2.1% increase in gross fixed capital formation and the 1.3% increase in final consumption.
GDP in value terms, current prices
According to the NSI's flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP in nominal terms reached BGN 65,352.7 million (see Table 2 in the Annex). The realized added value is BGN 56,589.6 million.
By final use, final consumption accounts for the largest share of GDP (81.4%), amounting to BGN 53,166.7 million in value terms. Gross capital formation is BGN 16,172.4 million and accounts for 24.7% of GDP. The foreign trade balance is negative.
Georgi Zhelyazkov 
