Bulgaria’s annual economic growth reached 2.7% in the second quarter of 2026. This is according to preliminary data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI), which provide the earliest snapshot of the economy’s performance. By comparison, in the first quarter, flash estimates indicated 2.9% growth in gross domestic product (GDP), and after the first revision (preliminary data), this figure was revised upward to 3.1%.
The available data show an improvement in final consumption growth (+7.6%) and the trade balance (the decline in exports slowed to -2.8%, while import growth also slowed to +6.9%). The trade deficit has a negative impact on economic growth, and its contraction leads to an improvement in the overall indicator.
Growth in gross capital formation (total investment in the country) has slowed to 8% on an annual basis.
The flash estimates do not provide a breakdown by components of growth, so it is unclear whether government consumption or household consumption is responsible for overall growth. However, there is reason to assume that it is government spending that drives both consumption and investment.
Eurostat data showed that in the first quarter of the year, the budget deficit on an accrual basis reached 7.6%. In other words, these are funds that have flowed into the economy beyond what it has produced. A great deal of additional spending is being made under the Recovery and Resilience Plan, as all investments under it must be completed by the end of this month.
According to preliminary estimates by the National Statistical Institute (NSI), GDP in nominal terms reached 25.315 billion euros in the first quarter of 2026. Value added amounted to 21.94 billion euros.
By final use, final consumption accounted for the largest share of GDP (88.8%), amounting to 22.48 billion euros in value terms. Gross capital formation totaled 4.38 billion euros, accounting for a 17.3% share of GDP. The foreign trade balance remains negative.
Georgi Zhelyazkov 
