With a revision of the data the NSI fixed the Bulgarian economy at 3%

The Bulgarian economy grew by 3% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This became clear after the first revision by the National Statistical Institute (NSI), made three weeks after the publication of the preliminary data. The preliminary data showed that the real annual increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for the period October – December was 2.9%.

These data are not final and will be revised in the coming quarters. By adding up the nominal values of production in each of the four quarters it can be calculated that the size of the Bulgarian economy reached €116 billion (BGN 227 billion). The increase compared to 2024 is BGN 22 billion (approx. €11 billion).

The breakdown by growth components shows that, unsurprisingly, final consumption has the largest contribution to growth, accounting for over 70% of total economic output, and its share is growing at the expense of other components. On an annual basis the increase in the fourth quarter is 7.8%, showing that throughout the year both households and the state have consumed much more goods and services than a year ago.

Individual household consumption is growing by 8.7%. This is related to double-digit increases in wages in the country, driven both by the lack of labor in the private sector and by record increases in public sector wages, inexplicably undertaken by the now-fallen Zhelyazkov cabinet.

However there is also a steady increase (7.5%) in individual government consumption – services that the state pays for but that people consume personally. For example: state healthcare or state education, which specific individuals benefit from.

At the same time collective government consumption (spending on security and defense, parliament, the judiciary and general administration as well as the police and fire department) grew by 3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

The largest growth, albeit with less impact due to its lower relative value, is in gross fixed capital formation (12.4%). This refers to investments made by businesses, the state and households in long-term tangible and intangible assets.

There is a very slight glimmer of hope in foreign trade, which grew by 0.2% after steadily declining over the previous three quarters. However this fragile recovery is entirely due to the increase in exports of services (3.7%), while exports of goods continue to decline (-0.8%), which has been the trend throughout the year. Imports, on the other hand, are already growing at a double-digit rate, which means that Bulgarian companies are using more and more capital for purchases abroad and receiving less and less currency. This is why Bulgaria reported a record trade deficit in 2025, which exceeded BGN20 billion for the first time.

Given these foreign trade figures, statistically speaking, it has a strongly negative impact on the country’s economic growth.

Translated with DeepL.