Bulgaria’s statistical institute revises upwards results of summer economic growth

The National Statistical Institute (NSI) raised the growth of the Bulgarian economy in the third quarter by 0.2 points, to 2.4%, compared to the same period of the previous year. This includes the summer tourist season, which was stronger than in 2023. The data shows that the number of overnight stays almost reached the level of pre-pandemic 2019.

The growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) is already ahead of that of the third quarter of the previous year, which was one of the weakest in the last decade due to the slowdown in Bulgaria's major trading partners, the lack of large public investments and the weak tourist season at that time.

The main drivers of economic growth in the third quarter, similar to the previous ones this year, are consumption and investment.

Individual consumption, including that of households and businesses, grew by 4.4%, which is a similar level to previous quarters. The accelerated consumption was linked to the continued double-digit growth of incomes in the country and the accelerated credit lending rate, which for mortgages alone reached 27% or a 16-year peak, and for consumer lending – a 15% growth, or a 5-year peak.

According to NSI data, individual consumption now has a greater weight in the formation of gross domestic product, with its share growing to 65.6%.

Collective consumption, i.e. government spending, is also increasing – by 5.7%, which is the highest annual growth for 2024.

The NSI also made a slight upward revision of the GDP data for the first and second quarters, 0.1 points to 2 and 2.2%, respectively.

Gross capital formation, or total investment in Bulgaria, is growing by 7.3%. Exports of goods and services are down by 0.4%, while imports are up by 3%. According to the Ministry of Finance, exports will increase in the last quarter of the year.

The NSI slightly increased GDP growth by 0.1 points on a quarterly basis - to 0.6%.

A number of institutions, the latest of which is the Ministry of Finance, have lowered their forecasts for the Bulgarian economy for this year. According to the latest estimates of the Ministry of Finance and the Bulgarian National Bank, annual economic growth in 2024 will be 2.2%.

Translated by Tzvetozar Vincent Iolov